Madagascar Food Security Outlook, June 2021 to January 2022 – Madagascar
Without large-scale aid, zone-level emergency (IPC Phase 4) likely during lean season 2021/22
Significant scaling up of sustained assistance in southern Madagascar is needed to prevent high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality, particularly in Ambovombe and Ampanihy districts, where emergency results (IPC Phase 4) are expected during the lean season 2021/22. , with some populations expected in Disaster (IPC Phase 5) in Ambovombe. As the 2021/22 lean season approaches, zone-level crisis results (IPC Phase 3) are expected in these districts with households in emergency situations (IPC Phase 4). ). Other regions of southern Madagascar are likely to experience crisis outcomes (IPC Phase 3) throughout the forecast period, with a significant number of poor households in emergencies (Phase 4 of the ‘IPC).
Three districts in the south-east are also expected to cope with the results of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2021 to January 2022 due to a serious rainfall deficit in January 2021 which adversely affected the development of the crop. rice during the transplanting phase. This resulted in lower household food stocks and lower incomes, forcing very poor households to sell more productive assets and livestock than usual.
The persistence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) results in southern Madagascar is due to lower than normal basic agricultural production, high food prices and low employment opportunities resulting from successive years of drought. Rainfall forecast calls for below average precipitation between October and December 2021, the start of the 2021/22 rainy season, lowering expectations of a significant recovery.