Below-average harvests, import shortages and high food prices lead to high needs during the lean season

Key messages

• Sudan is expected to face significant humanitarian assistance needs until September 2022 due to the macroeconomic crisis and below-average harvests leading to high food prices and a decline in household purchasing power. Conflict during the upcoming agricultural season is likely to increase the number of displaced households in Darfur. The number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worst outcomes is expected to remain high, particularly among displaced households, refugees and poor pastoral, agro-pastoral and urban households affected by a below-average harvest and low purchasing power.

• The 2020/22 winter season wheat harvest continues in most wheat-growing regions, but is negatively impacted by high labor and transport costs. The harvest is estimated at around 600,000 tonnes, around 13% less than the five-year average. To compensate farmers for the high cost of production and the devaluation of the SDG and to encourage the sale of produce to the Agricultural Bank of Sudan (ABS), the government has set the Salam price (predefined price for in-kind payments of debts to Agricultural Bank of Sudan). Bank) to SDG 43,000/90 kg wheat, 200-250% more than last year.

• In March and April, staple food prices continued to rise unseasonably, mainly due to reduced supply in the market following a below-average harvest, production costs and extremely high transport, the devaluation of the SDG and the above-average demand for local wheat. due to the high cost and shortages of imported wheat and wheat flour. In April 2022, staple food prices increased by an average of 10-15% compared to March and remained 200-250% higher than the respective prices of last year and more than four to five times higher than the five-year average.

• Available information suggests that at least 85,000 people were displaced in Kereniek following inter-communal clashes in late April. Displaced households are likely facing large food consumption deficits indicative of an emergency (IPC Phase 4) situation, as evidenced by reports of total loss of assets and displaced people eating mangoes green and sour gum. HAC plans suggest that humanitarian partners respond and start distributing food and non-food items. Additional information will be provided in future reports as new information becomes available.